On January 28, the National Bureau of Statistics reported that in January, the manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) was 49.1%, down 1.0 percentage points from the previous month, and the manufacturing industry's prosperity level fell.

On January 27, 2025, the National Bureau of Statistics Service Industry Survey Center and the China Federation of Logistics and Procurement released the China Purchasing Managers Index. In this regard, Zhao Qinghe, senior statistician of the Service Industry Survey Center of the National Bureau of Statistics, gave an explanation.

In January, due to factors such as the approaching Spring Festival holiday and the concentrated return of corporate employees, the manufacturing purchasing managers index was 49.1%, down 1.0 percentage points from the previous month; the non-manufacturing business activity index was 50.2%, down 2.0 percentage points from the previous month, still higher than the critical point; the comprehensive PMI output index was 50.1%, and my country's overall economic output continued to expand. The manufacturing production and operation activities expectations index and the non-manufacturing business activities expectations index were 55.3% and 56.7% respectively, both in a relatively high economic range, indicating that most companies have strong confidence in market development after the holiday.

1. The manufacturing purchasing managers index fell, and the expected index rebounded significantly.

In January, the manufacturing PMI was 49.1%, and the prosperity level fell from the previous month.

(I) Both ends of production and demand have slowed down. Affected by the Spring Festival factors, the production index and the new order index were 49.8% and 49.2%, respectively, down 2.3 and 1.8 percentage points from the previous month, and manufacturing production and market demand slowed down. From an industry perspective, the two indexes of industries such as metal products, special equipment, railway, ship, aerospace equipment, etc. are above 51.5%, and are in the expansion range; the two indexes of industries such as food and wine and beverage refined tea, textiles, non-ferrous metal smelting and calendering processing are both below the critical point, and the production and demand activity is relatively weak.

(II) The production and demand index of large enterprises continues to be higher than the critical point. The PMIs of large, medium and small enterprises were 49.9%, 49.5% and 46.5%, respectively, down 0.6, 1.2 and 2.0 percentage points from the previous month. From the perspective of production and demand, the production index of large enterprises and the new order index were 51.3% and 50.6% respectively, which continued to be in the expansion range; the production index of medium and small enterprises and the new order index of new order index fell compared with the previous month.

(III) The equipment manufacturing industry continues to expand. From the perspective of key industries, the PMI of the equipment manufacturing industry was 50.2%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, and above the critical point for six consecutive months; the PMI of the high-tech manufacturing industry, consumer goods industry and high-energy-consuming industries were 49.3%, 49.1% and 47.6%, down 0.4, 2.3 and 1.2 percentage points from the previous month, and the economic level fell to varying degrees.

(IV) Both price indexes rebounded. The purchase price index and ex-factory price index of major raw materials were 49.5% and 47.4%, respectively, up 1.3 and 0.7 percentage points from the previous month. From an industry perspective, the two price indexes of petroleum, coal and other fuel processing industries have both rebounded sharply to the prosperous range. The two price indexes of the textile, clothing, papermaking, and cultural, educational, sports, and entertainment products continue to be in the expansion range, and the overall level of purchase and sales prices in related industries has risen.

(V) Corporate expectations have rebounded significantly. The expected index of production and operation activities was 55.3%, up 2.0 percentage points from the previous month, rising to a higher prosperity range, indicating that most manufacturing companies have increased their confidence in market development after the holiday. From an industry perspective, the expected index of production and operation activities in industries such as railways, ships, aerospace equipment, electrical machinery and equipment are all located in the high economic range of more than 60.0%, and related companies are more optimistic about the future market expectations.

2. The non-manufacturing business activity index continued to be higher than the critical point

In January, the non-manufacturing business activity index was 50.2%, down 2.0 percentage points from the previous month, and still above the critical point. The non-manufacturing industry generally continued to expand.

(I) The service industry continues to expand. The service industry business activity index was 50.3%, down 1.7 percentage points from the previous month, and the expansion of the service industry slowed down. From an industry perspective, driven by the Spring Festival effect, the business activity index of industries such as road transportation, accommodation, catering, ecological protection and public facilities management related to residents' travel and consumption has risen to the expansion range, and the market activity has increased; the business activity index of industries such as air transportation, postal, telecommunications, radio and television, satellite transmission services, monetary and financial services continues to be in a relatively high prosperity range of more than 55.0%, and the total business volume maintains rapid growth. From the perspective of market expectations, the business activity expectations index is 56.8%, which continues to be in a relatively high prosperity range. Most service industry companies are optimistic about the market development prospects.

(II) The construction industry has experienced a seasonal decline. Affected by factors such as the approaching Spring Festival holiday and low winter temperatures, the construction industry has entered the traditional off-season, with the business activity index of 49.3%, falling below the critical point. Judging from market expectations, the business activity expectations index was 56.5%, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, and continued to be in a relatively high prosperity range, indicating that construction companies have strong confidence in the recent industry development.

3. The comprehensive PMI output index maintained expansion

In January, the comprehensive PMI output index was 50.1%, down 2.1 percentage points from the previous month, slightly higher than the critical point, indicating that the overall production and operation activities of my country's enterprises continued to expand. The manufacturing production index and non-manufacturing business activity index that constitute the comprehensive PMI output index were 49.8% and 50.2% respectively.