In recent years, my country's real estate market has been in an adjustment cycle, and some data have shown a downward trend, such as real estate development investment data.The National Bureau of Statistics recently announced the completion of real estate development investment, which showed that from January to September, the national real estate development investment was 5,336.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 20.6%.Judging from the trend chart, the decline in investment in real estate development has been expanding this year.
Generally speaking, a decline in real estate development investment data will be interpreted as a lack of investment willingness among real estate development companies and weak market development.However, now, this data needs to be comprehensively analyzed from the perspective of the stage of real estate.my country's real estate has entered the era of stock, and is now in the stage of controlling increase, reducing stock, and optimizing supply.Real estate transactions are accelerating from an incremental transaction pattern dominated by new home sales to a combination of new homes and second-hand homes.The decline in real estate development investment data is a reflection of local governments' implementation of the central government's strict control over increments, and is also a manifestation of the rapid formation of a balance between supply and demand in the market.
Currently, the real estate market is showing some positive factors.Second-hand housing transaction data this year has been on the rise.According to data from the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, from January to September, the online area of second-hand housing transactions nationwide reached 617.46 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 10.7%.The single-month growth rate in September was 11.7% year-on-year, which was faster than the cumulative growth rate, indicating that the activity of second-hand housing transactions continued to increase after entering the "Golden September" period.From January to September, the online transaction volume of second-hand housing in 20 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities) exceeded that of newly built commercial housing. Second-hand housing has become the main force in housing supply and market transactions in more and more regions.
In the future, it will be normal for second-hand housing transactions to rise and new housing transactions to decline.The history of developed countries shows that the total volume of new and second-hand housing transactions in the stock era will not decline significantly.In the first half of this year, second-hand houses accounted for more than half of the total new and second-hand house transactions, which is a sign that my country's real estate has entered the stock era.
The effect of destocking is obvious.At the end of September, the area of newly built commercial housing for sale nationwide fell by 1.5% year-on-year. This was the seventh consecutive month of year-on-year growth decline, indicating a decline in real estate inventory.In particular, the inventory of newly built commercial housing less than 3 years old fell even more.At the end of September, the area of newly built commercial buildings for sale for less than three years fell by 5.0% year-on-year. It has continued to decline since the end of December last year, and the decline has been expanding, indicating that the effect of destocking is relatively obvious.
House prices have increased in some cities.In September, among 70 large and medium-sized cities, the sales price of newly built commercial housing in first-tier cities increased month-on-month for two consecutive months, and the sales price of second-hand housing increased month-on-month for seven consecutive months.Most of the second-tier and third-tier cities maintained the same month-on-month decline or contracted the month-on-month decline.In September, the number of cities with month-on-month price increases for new homes increased by 2 from August, and the number of cities with month-on-month price increases for second-hand homes increased by 6 from August.
“Good house” sales become a bright spot.Currently, the total number of new home transactions is still in a downward range, but some “good house” projects with good design, high quality, and complete supporting facilities are recognized by the market and are selling well.Some projects even have "sunlight" upon opening.It can be seen that the current demand for housing has transformed from "is it available" to "is it good or not". There is still widespread demand for real estate projects with good quality, living experience and supporting services. This forces real estate companies to continuously adjust development strategies and optimize product structures.
Overall, the entire real estate market is developing in a positive direction.The real estate industry will turn more to existing transactions, rental housing, urban renewal, property services and improvement of living quality.Real estate companies are also extending into diversified businesses such as construction agency, leasing, urban renewal, and stock operation.The real estate industry will continue to deepen structural transformation and move toward a higher-quality development stage while operating smoothly.