On October 19, the National Bureau of Statistics released the sales price changes of commercial housing in 70 large and medium-sized cities in September.Data show that the sales price of commercial housing in first-tier cities continued to rise month-on-month. The sales price of newly-built commercial housing increased by 0.1% month-on-month. Overall, it has maintained an upward trend for seven consecutive months.Second-hand housing is a leading indicator of the prosperity of the property market. In September, the sales price of second-hand housing in first-tier cities increased by 0.2% month-on-month, rising steadily for seven consecutive months.

First-tier new homes in September rose 0.1% month-on-month

Data from the National Bureau of Statistics show that in September, the sales price of newly built commercial housing in first-tier cities increased by 0.1% month-on-month, the same increase as last month.Among them, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen increased by 0.2%, 0.2% and 0.3% respectively, while Beijing fell by 0.2%.

A reporter from Beijing Business Daily found that the sales prices of newly built commercial residential buildings in first-tier cities have remained flat for seven consecutive months since they were flat in February.The month-on-month increases from March to September were 0.2%, 0.1%, 0.2%, 0.1%, unchanged, 0.1%, and 0.1%.

In September, the sales price of newly built commercial housing in second-tier cities remained unchanged from a month-on-month decrease of 0.1%.The sales price of newly built commercial housing in third-tier cities fell by 0.2% month-on-month, the same rate of decline as last month.

Yan Yuejin, deputy director of Shanghai Yiju Real Estate Research Institute, pointed out that since September, expectations for housing prices in various places have improved significantly, and the pace of market entry has accelerated significantly.Moreover, the product power of this round of "Golden Nine and Silver Ten" has been significantly released.Since the release of the "Residential Project Specifications" in May last year, product innovation has increased, and it is currently the first "Golden Nine and Silver Ten" products to enter the market intensively.The combination of good products and the expected stabilization of house prices can better promote active market transactions and the stabilization of house price trends.

In addition to the continuous improvement on the month-on-month basis, year-on-year indicators are also improving at the same margin.In September, the sales price of newly built commercial housing in first-tier cities fell by 0.5% year-on-year, and the decline narrowed by 0.4 percentage points from the previous month.Among them, Beijing, Guangzhou and Shenzhen decreased by 2.7%, 1.1% and 1% respectively, while Shanghai increased by 2.8%.

The sales prices of newly built commercial residential buildings in second- and third-tier cities fell by 2.4% and 3.9% year-on-year respectively, with the decline narrowing by 0.3 and 0.2 percentage points respectively.

Yan Yuejin said that under the previous improvement in housing prices in first-tier cities, second-tier cities, especially cities with good population fundamentals and urban fundamentals, have performed better, indicating that market demand is actively released.In terms of year-on-year indicators, all three types of cities are improving.It can be seen from such indicators that first-tier cities are expected to achieve a positive year-on-year indicator in the fourth quarter, and then achieve a "double positive" year-on-year indicator, further driving the arrival of an inflection point in national housing prices.

First-line second-hand housing prices have risen for 7 consecutive months

The new home market continues to be warm, and second-hand homes, as a key link in the property market replacement chain, are undergoing repairs at the same time.

Data from the National Bureau of Statistics show that the sales price of second-hand housing in first-tier cities increased by 0.2% month-on-month, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month.Among them, Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen increased by 0.1%, 0.5%, 0.1% and 0.2% respectively.

In line with the trend of new homes, the price of second-hand homes in first-tier cities has been rising month-on-month for seven consecutive months.A Beijing Business Daily reporter found that since March turned from falling to rising and recorded a month-on-month increase of 0.4%, first-line second-hand housing prices have continued to rise steadily. The month-on-month increases from March to September were 0.4%, 0.4%, 0.4%, 0.3%, 0.2%, 0.1%, and 0.2%.

Yan Yuejin said that the positive month-on-month growth in first-tier cities for seven consecutive months has a positive effect in guiding housing price expectations to improve.

The sales price of second-hand housing in second-tier cities fell by 0.2% month-on-month in September, and the decline narrowed by 0.1 percentage points from the previous month.The sales price of second-hand housing in third-tier cities fell by 0.3% month-on-month, the same rate of decline as last month.

Yan Yuejin pointed out that the second-hand housing price index has improved significantly year-on-year, which fully demonstrates that the market during the "Golden Nine and Silver Ten" periods is good.Judging from the actual process, second-hand housing has entered a new stage of "nothing to fall, and even started to rise slightly".This is related to the release of policy effects and the full adjustment of the market.In turn, it provides good support for the improvement in housing prices in various places, especially the trend of housing prices reaching an inflection point.

On a year-on-year basis, the sales price of second-hand residential properties in first-tier cities fell by 1.5% year-on-year in September, a decline that was 1.2 percentage points narrower than the previous month.Among them, Beijing, Guangzhou and Shenzhen decreased by 2.5%, 2.9% and 1.5% respectively, while Shanghai increased by 0.8%.The sales price of second-hand housing in second- and third-tier cities fell by 4.5% and 5.4% year-on-year respectively, with the decline narrowing by 0.4 and 0.2 percentage points respectively.

New and second-hand houses in many places are on the rise

Under the influence that the sales price of commercial housing in first-tier cities continued to rise month-on-month, the month-on-month decrease in second- and third-tier cities generally narrowed, and the year-on-year decrease in first-, second- and third-tier cities all narrowed, the number of cities with month-on-month increase in commercial housing sales prices in September expanded compared with the previous month.

From the perspective of newly built commercial housing, among the 70 large and medium-sized cities, 17 cities saw sales prices increase month-on-month, an increase of 2 from the previous month.

In terms of housing price performance by city, the sales price of newly built commercial housing in Xuzhou increased by 0.4% month-on-month, ranking among the top; Changchun, Shenzhen, Nanning, and Chongqing increased by 0.3% month-on-month, followed by Shanghai, Guangzhou, Dalian, Nanjing, Qingdao, Hefei, Wuhan, and Yichang, which increased by 0.2% month-on-month; Taiyuan, Hangzhou, Urumqi, and Jinzhou increased by 0.1% month-on-month.

Yan Yuejin said that the sales prices of newly built commercial housing in this round of cities have increased mainly in first- and second-tier cities, which have maintained a relatively positive and active trend.The market revelation is that cities with large populations or high levels of net population inflow, as well as strong employment opportunities, have obviously brought about a positive release of demand for home purchases.

While new homes are picking up in more cities, the recovery momentum of the second-hand home market is stronger.Data from the National Bureau of Statistics show that among 70 large and medium-sized cities, 9 cities saw second-hand residential sales prices increase month-on-month, an increase of 6 from the previous month.

In terms of house price performance by city, Shanghai's second-hand house sales prices increased by 0.5% month-on-month, leading other cities; Wuxi and Xuzhou increased by 0.3% month-on-month; Shenzhen and Hefei increased by 0.2% month-on-month; and four cities including Beijing, Guangzhou, and Dalian increased by 0.1% month-on-month.

Xie Yifeng, president of the China Urban Real Estate Research Institute, believes that the property market in October is expected to continue the rebound in housing prices in September.He said that on the one hand, mortgage interest discount policies in many places were implemented this month; on the other hand, demand and supply-side forces were released during the "Silver Ten", jointly supporting the continuation of housing price recovery.