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How to view the expected target of economic growth rate around 5%
2025-05-08 source:Xinhua Daily Telegra

"Gross domestic product growth is about 5%" this year's government work report expected China's economic growth rate in 2025.

At present, the global economic recovery momentum is insufficient, and the instability and uncertainty faced by international economic and trade cooperation are plaguing global development. The United Nations and the International Monetary Fund expect global economic growth in 2025 to be 2.8% and 3.3% respectively.

Faced with difficulties and worked hard, China proposed a growth target of about 5% to send a clear signal.

On the one hand, whether it is to deal with the outstanding challenges facing economic operation, stabilize employment, prevent risks, benefit people's livelihood, or to deal with complex changes in the external environment and continuously improve international competitiveness, certain economic growth is needed as support;

On the other hand, my country has the support conditions to maintain stable and healthy economic development, and macro policies still have room for reinforcement, and they have the ability and conditions to achieve this expected goal.

Take both needs and possibilities, current and long-term, and fully connect with the medium- and long-term development goals and economic growth in recent years. This goal is conducive to mobilizing the enthusiasm of all parties and gathering forces to promote high-quality development.

Following the support conditions, my country's economy has not changed in a stable and long-term positive fundamental manner, and there is sufficient confidence and confidence to achieve the growth target of about 5% -

The foundation is stable. As a super-large-scale economy, my country has huge economic scale, market capacity and industrial supporting capabilities;

Many advantages are. my country not only has the scale advantages, market advantages, talent advantages, and innovation advantages of the economy of a big country, but also the unique institutional advantages of the Party's leadership and the socialist market economic system;

The potential is great, and the super-large-scale market with a population of more than 1.4 billion contains huge development opportunities. Most research institutions at home and abroad believe that China's economic development still has great potential, and the potential growth rate is still at a high level of around 5%.

In recent years, my country has made breakthrough progress in the fields of artificial intelligence large models, humanoid robots, quantum communications, semiconductors, etc., and the global innovation ranking has risen to 11th. The continuous improvement of innovation capabilities has injected strong momentum into economic development.

Looking at the development trend, the current positive factors supporting the recovery and improvement of economic operations have accumulated accumulative increase, laying a good foundation for achieving the growth target of about 5%. On March 17, the National Bureau of Statistics released the main economic indicators in the first two months. Major indicators such as industrial added value above scale, service industry production index, total retail sales of consumer goods, fixed asset investment, etc., have all shown a steady upward trend, with a growth rate faster than the whole year of last year.

"The economic operation started smoothly" and "the development trend is new and improving", Fu Linghui, spokesperson of the National Bureau of Statistics, commented on the characteristics of economic operation in the first two months.

From the perspective of "number", a group of subdivided data also reflects the upward momentum of my country's economy: from January to February, the added value of high-tech manufacturing above designated size increased by 9.1% year-on-year, and the output of high-tech products such as integrated circuit wafers, industrial robots, EMUs, and civilian drones increased by 19.6%, 27%, 64%, and 91.5% year-on-year, respectively, and emerging industries grew stronger; investment in manufacturing technology transformation increased by 10% year-on-year, 5.9 percentage points faster than all investments, and the pace of industrial transformation and upgrading was steady...

In February, the manufacturing purchasing manager index and non-manufacturing business activity index were 50.2% and 50.4%, respectively, up 1.1 and 0.2 percentage points from the previous month; the development index of small and medium-sized enterprises was 89.8, the highest value in the past four years...

Follow policy support, the accelerated implementation of more active and proactive macroeconomic policies and landmark reform measures will provide solid guarantees for achieving the growth target of about 5% -

The deficit ratio is planned to be arranged at about 4%, an increase of 1 percentage point over the previous year; the general public budget expenditure scale is 29.7 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.2 trillion yuan over the previous year; the plan to issue 1.3 trillion yuan in ultra-long-term special treasury bonds, an increase of 300 billion yuan over the previous year; the dual functions of monetary policy tools and structure, reduce the reserve requirement ratio and interest rate in a timely manner, and maintain a sufficient liquidity; the introduction and implementation of policies should be carried out as early as possible, rather than late, and seize the time with various uncertainties...

From a series of solid data and solid and powerful measures in the government work report, it can be seen that this year's macroeconomic policies are "more active and effective" in terms of orientation, intensity and rhythm. Shen Danyang, head of the drafting group of the government work report and director of the State Council Research Office, pointed out that macroeconomic policies will be dynamically adjusted and actively responded according to changes in the situation.

This year marks the end of the 14th Five-Year Plan and is also an important year for further comprehensive deepening of reforms. With the implementation of the reform arrangements made by the Third Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China, the endogenous driving force and vitality of economic development will be further stimulated.

First be confident and work hard.

Anchoring the growth target of about 5%, the whole country is transforming the spirit of the Two Sessions into practical actions, and using a sense of responsibility and urgency to push the giant Chinese economy toward a broader future with a sense of responsibility and urgency that is too late and seizes the day.

(Reporter Pan Jie) Xinhua News Agency, Beijing, March 18

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