CCTV News: According to the website of the National Bureau of Statistics, Dong Lijuan, chief statistician of the Urban Department of the National Bureau of Statistics, interprets the CPI and PPI data for February 2025.

In February, the consumer price index (CPI) fell by 0.2% month-on-month and 0.7% year-on-year; the industrial producer price index (PPI) fell by 0.1% month-on-month and 2.2% year-on-year. This is mainly affected by factors such as the Spring Festival, holidays and fluctuations in the price of some international commodities. From a structural perspective, prices in some areas have shown positive changes. The prices of some industrial consumer goods and services in CPI have risen steadily, while the decline in PPI has narrowed. The current trend of moderate rebound in prices has not changed.

1. Factors such as the Spring Festival and other factors affect CPI from rising to falling year-on-year. After deducting the impact of the Spring Festival and CPI continues to rise year-on-year.

There are three main reasons for the year-on-year CPI from rising to falling year-on-year: First, the Spring Festival and the Spring Festival have caused a higher comparison base in the same period last year. In February last year, due to the Spring Festival factors, food and service prices rose a lot, which raised the comparison base in February this year, resulting in negative year-on-year impacts of price changes in February this year. It is estimated that among the year-on-year changes of CPI of -0.7% in February, the lagging impact of price changes in the previous year was about -1.2 percentage points, and the new impact of price changes this year was about 0.5 percentage points. After deducting the impact of Spring Festival mismatch, the CPI rose by 0.1% year-on-year in February, and the current trend of moderate recovery in prices has not changed. Judging from the categories of impacts of the Spring Festival, food prices fell by 3.3% year-on-year, affecting CPI by about 0.60 percentage points year-on-year, accounting for more than 80% of the total CPI decline, which is the main factor driving the CPI from rising to falling; air tickets and tourism prices fell by 22.6% and 9.6% year-on-year, respectively, affecting CPI by about 0.27 percentage points year-on-year. Second, the weather in February this year is conducive to the growth and transportation of fresh vegetables. In February, there were fewer rain, snow and freezing weather in the country, while in some areas of the same period last year, there were two rounds of rain, snow and freezing weather, which had a great impact on agricultural production and transportation. In February, the price of fresh vegetables fell by 12.6% year-on-year, affecting the CPI decline by about 0.31 percentage points year-on-year. Third, price reduction promotions for automobiles and other products. In February, the prices of fuel-fired cars and new energy cars fell by 5.0% and 6.0% year-on-year respectively, which affected the CPI by about 0.16 percentage points year-on-year.

2. Multiple factors such as industrial production off-season and fluctuations in the price of some international commodities affected the decline of PPI, but the decline narrowed slightly

The month-on-month and year-on-year declines in February were both narrowed by 0.1 percentage point. The main reasons for the decline in PPI are as follows: First, it is the off-season for industrial production around the Spring Festival, and the suspension of work in most construction projects affects building materials demand. Affected by factors such as holidays and low temperatures, construction projects have been shut down, and demand for building materials is weak. The prices of ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industries fell by 10.6% year-on-year, and the prices of non-metallic mineral products industry fell by 3.5% year-on-year. Second, the coal supply is sufficient and the guarantee is strong during the Spring Festival. Coal production is generally stable, with sufficient coal storage in power plants and ports, coal processing prices fell by 24.7% year-on-year, and coal mining and washing industries prices fell by 12.5% ​​year-on-year. Third, the fluctuations in international oil prices have led to the decline in prices in domestic oil-related industries. Affected by the fluctuations in international crude oil prices, prices in domestic oil-related industries fell, among which the price of oil mining decreased by 5.1% year-on-year, the price of organic chemical raw materials decreased by 4.5% year-on-year, and the price of refined petroleum products decreased by 1.6% year-on-year. At the same time, as the effects of macro policies gradually emerge, production demand in some industries has increased, pushing the decline in PPI narrowed.

3. From the perspective of sub-item structure, prices in some areas have shown positive changes

First, the prices of some goods and services in CPI have risen steadily. Energy prices in CPI rose by 0.6% month-on-month in February, of which gasoline prices rose by 1.3%. Affected by the rebound in consumer demand, the prices of industrial consumer goods excluding energy rose by 0.2% month-on-month and year-on-year, among which the prices of durable consumer goods, clothing, communication tools and small household appliances rose by 1.6%, 1.4%, 1.3% and 1.0% year-on-year respectively. Affected by the fluctuations in international gold prices, the year-on-year increase in gold jewelry prices has expanded to 38.6%. Prices in some service industries have steadily increased, with movie and performance ticket prices rising by 3.1% month-on-month, rent prices rising by 0.1% month-on-month, housekeeping services and hair salon prices rising by 2.6% and 1.0% year-on-year, foreign catering prices rising by 1.2% year-on-year, and educational services and medical services prices rising by 1.3% and 0.6% year-on-year, respectively. Second, demand for industrial products has been steadily released, and prices in related industries have risen slightly. In the consumer goods manufacturing industry, the prices of cultural, educational, and sports and entertainment products manufacturing industries rose by 1.1% month-on-month, the prices of wine, beverage and refined tea manufacturing industries rose by 0.2% month-on-month, the prices of tobacco products industry rose by 0.1% month-on-month, the prices of furniture manufacturing industries rose by 0.1% month-on-month, the prices of clothing manufacturing companies rose by 0.1% month-on-month, and the prices of household kitchen appliances rose by 0.1% month-on-month. The development of industries such as new energy and artificial intelligence has driven the prices of non-ferrous metal mining and dressing, non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industries to rise by 1.8% and 0.3% month-on-month respectively. Third, the supply and demand structure of some industrial industries has improved, and the price decline has slowed down. In the equipment manufacturing industry, the manufacturing prices of photovoltaic equipment and components fell by 13.0% year-on-year, the prices of electronic semiconductor materials fell by 9.7% year-on-year, and the manufacturing prices of automobiles fell by 4.6% year-on-year, narrowing the decline compared with the previous month. The resumption of work and production accelerated after the holiday, and electricity demand recovered rapidly. The prices of electricity and heat production and supply industries fell by 0.8% year-on-year, a decrease of 0.7 percentage points from the previous month.