Xinhua News Agency, Beijing, April 30. Title: Short-term fluctuations do not change the long-term positive trend of the economy - Interpreting the PMI data for April

Xinhua News Agency reporter Pan Jie

The National Bureau of Statistics Service Industry Survey Center and the China Federation of Logistics and Procurement released data on April 30. Although my country's manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) in April was 49%, down 1.5 percentage points from the previous month, my country's overall economic output continued to expand, and the long-term positive fundamentals did not change.

Affected by factors such as the rapid growth of manufacturing in the early stage, the manufacturing PMI fell below the critical point in April. However, high-tech manufacturing and other related industries continue to expand, and manufacturing enterprises mainly sell domestically stable in production and operations, and corporate expectations remain optimistic and main tone.

As a result of changes in the foreign trade environment, my country's manufacturing exports have been affected, and foreign demand has tightened in the short term. In April, the new export order index was 44.7%, down 4.3 percentage points from the previous month. The tightening of foreign demand has dragged down the overall market demand of the manufacturing industry. The new order index in manufacturing was 49.2%, down 2.6 percentage points from the previous month, falling into the contraction range after operating above 51% for two consecutive months.

Affected by tightening external demand, production has also declined slightly overall. In April, the manufacturing production index was 49.8%, down 2.8 percentage points from the previous month. The overall weak operation of supply and demand has driven the decline in prices of raw materials and finished products. The purchase price index and ex-factory price index of major raw materials were 47% and 44.8% respectively, down 2.8 and 3.1 percentage points from the previous month.

"The changes in the foreign trade environment in April brought certain disturbances to my country's manufacturing industry, market demand and enterprise production slowed down in the short term, and raw material procurement, market prices and other aspects also fluctuated, but my country's economic foundation is still stable." Wen Tao, an analyst at the China Logistics Information Center, said that my country's advantages such as super-large-scale market and complete industrial chain and supply chain system continue to play a role, effectively resisting external shocks; at the same time, a series of policies introduced in the early stage drove the economy to move forward steadily.

Wen Tao analyzed that in April, the level of the new order index in the manufacturing industry was significantly higher than the new export order index, and the month-on-month decline in the new order index was also smaller than the decline in the new export order index, indicating that the overall order acceptance of the manufacturing industry only contracted slightly compared with the previous month, and domestic demand was released steadily, alleviating the pressure on the downward trend of export orders.

From the industry's industry's PMI is 51.5%, which is significantly higher than the overall level of the manufacturing industry. Its production index and new order index are both at 52% and above, and the high-tech manufacturing industry continues to develop well. In addition, the production index and new order index of agricultural and sideline food processing, food, wine and beverage refined tea, medicine and other industries are both at 53% or above, and the potential of the domestic super-large-scale market continues to be released.

From market expectations, in April, the expected index of production and operation activities was 52.1%, continuing to be in the expansion range. Among them, the expected index of production and operation activities in industries such as food, wine and beverage refined tea, automobiles, railway, ship, aerospace equipment, etc. are all located in a relatively high prosperity range of 58% or above, and some industries and enterprises are highly confident in the near future development.

In terms of non-manufacturing industries, in April, the non-manufacturing business activity index was 50.4%, although it fell by 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, but since the beginning of this year, it has remained slightly above 50% for four consecutive months, continuing a stable expansion and operation trend.

The changes in the segment index show that residents' tourism and leisure-related activities have performed well, their willingness to leisure and travel has increased, and related industries such as the information service industry have continued to be active, and the development momentum of new momentum is good.

Driven by the Qingming Festival holiday, in April, the business activity index and new order index of the air transportation industry increased significantly compared with the previous month, with the index level above 55%; the business activity index of the cultural, sports and entertainment industry rose to more than 51%; the business activity index of the telecommunications operation service industry remained above 58%, and has been operating above 55% since the beginning of this year; the Internet and software technology services industry rose for two consecutive months, rising to more than 55%, with a significant month-on-month increase.

As the orderly progress of engineering projects in various places, the progress of civil engineering construction has accelerated. In April, the construction industry's business activity index was 51.9%, which was in the expansion range. Among them, the business activity index of the civil engineering construction industry was 60.9%, an increase of 6.4 percentage points from the previous month.

In terms of comprehensive PMI output index, in April, the index was 50.2%, which was 1.2 percentage points lower than the previous month, but it was still higher than the critical point. Among them, the manufacturing production index and non-manufacturing business activity index that constitute the comprehensive PMI output index were 49.8% and 50.4% respectively.

"The comprehensive PMI output index has always been above the critical point since January 2023. my country's overall economic output continues to expand, and the long-term positive fundamentals have not changed." Zhao Qinghe, senior statistician at the Service Industry Survey Center of the National Bureau of Statistics, said that in the next stage, we must conscientiously implement the spirit of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee, coordinate domestic economic work and international economic and trade struggles, focus on stabilizing employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations, and respond to the uncertainty of sharp changes in the external environment with the certainty of high-quality development.