CCTV News: China's purchasing managers' index expansion accelerated in March, and Zhao Qinghe, senior statistician of the Service Industry Survey Center of the National Bureau of Statistics, interpreted the China purchasing managers' index in March 2025.

On March 31, 2025, the National Bureau of Statistics Service Industry Survey Center and the China Federation of Logistics and Procurement released the China Purchasing Managers Index. In this regard, Zhao Qinghe, senior statistician of the Service Industry Survey Center of the National Bureau of Statistics, gave an explanation.

In March, the impact of Spring Festival factors gradually subsided, and the production and operation activities of enterprises accelerated. The manufacturing purchasing manager index, non-manufacturing business activity index and comprehensive PMI output index were 50.5%, 50.8% and 51.4%, respectively, up 0.3, 0.4 and 0.3 percentage points from the previous month. All three major indexes continue to rise in the expansion range, and my country's economy generally maintains expansion.

The manufacturing purchasing managers index expanded for two consecutive months

In March, the manufacturing PMI rose to 50.5%, and the prosperity level continued to rebound.

(One) Expansion at both ends of production demand is accelerating. The production index and the new order index were 52.6% and 51.8%, respectively, up 0.1 and 0.7 percentage points from the previous month, and the expansion has accelerated. From an industry perspective, the production index and new order index of industries such as railway, ship, aerospace equipment, computer, communication and electronic equipment have both risen to a high prosperity range of more than 55.0%, and the production and demand of related industries have been released at a faster pace; the two indexes of industries such as wood processing and furniture, petroleum and coal and other fuel processing are both below the critical point, and the supply and demand of related industries are still insufficient. Driven by factors such as the rebound in manufacturing industry demand, enterprises have strong purchasing intentions, with a purchase volume index of 51.8%, and has maintained expansion for two consecutive months.

(II) Both PMIs in small and medium-sized enterprises have improved. The PMI of large enterprises was 51.2%, down 1.3 percentage points from the previous month, and still above the critical point. The PMIs of medium and small enterprises were 49.9% and 49.6%, respectively, up 0.7 and 3.3 percentage points from the previous month, and the prosperity level of small and medium-sized enterprises rebounded to varying degrees. Among them, the small enterprise production index and new order index were 50.8% and 49.8% respectively, both of which were significantly improved from the previous month.

(III) PMI in the three key industries has been steadily increasing. The PMIs of equipment manufacturing, high-tech manufacturing and consumer goods industries were 52.0%, 52.3% and 50.0%, respectively, up 1.2, 1.4 and 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, and the prosperity level rebounded for two consecutive months; the PMI of high-energy-consuming industries was 49.3%, down 0.5 percentage points from the previous month.

(IV) The price index has fallen. Affected by recent fluctuations in the price of some commodities such as crude oil and iron ore, the purchase price index and ex-factory price index of major raw materials were 49.8% and 47.9% respectively, down 1.0 and 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, and the overall level of the manufacturing market price has declined. Among them, the purchase price index and ex-factory price index of major raw materials in industries such as agricultural and sideline food processing, non-ferrous metal smelting and calendering processing are both in the expansion range of more than 52.0%, and the price index of raw material procurement and product sales in related industries has increased; the price index of two industries such as petroleum, coal and other fuel processing, ferrous metal smelting and calendering processing both fell compared with the previous month.

(V) Market expectations are basically stable. The expected index of production and operation activities was 53.8%, down 0.7 percentage points from the previous month, and continued to be in the expansion range. Manufacturing companies remained optimistic about the recent market development. From an industry perspective, the expected index of production and operation activities in industries such as railways, ships, aerospace equipment, electrical machinery and equipment are all located in the high prosperity range of more than 60.0%, and related companies have strong confidence in the development of the industry.

The expansion of the non-manufacturing business activity index accelerated

In March, the non-manufacturing business activity index was 50.8%, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, and the pace of non-manufacturing expansion accelerated.

(I) The prosperity level of the service industry has rebounded. The service industry business activity index was 50.3%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, and the service industry market activity overall increased. From the industry perspective, the production and operation activities of enterprises in some industries have accelerated, and the business activity indexes of industries such as water transportation, air transportation, postal services, telecommunications, radio and television, satellite transmission services, monetary and financial services are all located in a relatively high prosperity range of more than 55.0%. As the Spring Festival effect gradually fades, the business activity indexes of industries such as catering, ecological protection, public facility management, culture, sports and entertainment related to residents' consumption have declined. From the perspective of market expectations, the business activity expectations index was 57.5%, up 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, and is located in a relatively high economic range. Most service industry companies' expectations for the near-term market development continue to improve.

(II) Construction progress in the construction industry is accelerating. Affected by factors such as the warming climate and the accelerated progress of construction projects in various places, the construction industry's business activity index continued to rebound to 53.4%, up 0.7 percentage points from the previous month. Judging from market expectations, the business activity expectations index was 55.3%, rising to a relatively high prosperity range, and construction companies have increased their confidence in recent market development.

The comprehensive PMI output index continued to rise

In March, the comprehensive PMI output index was 51.4%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that the production and operation activity of my country's enterprises has increased. The manufacturing production index and non-manufacturing business activity index that constitute the comprehensive PMI output index were 52.6% and 50.8% respectively.

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The prosperity level continues to rebound! China's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) in March 2025 was 50.5%