CCTV News: The National Bureau of Statistics released the national CPI (Consumer Price Index) and PPI (Industrial Producer Factory Price Index) data for January 2025 today. In this regard, Dong Lijuan, chief statistician of the Urban Department of the National Bureau of Statistics, gave an explanation.

1. CPI growth expanded

In January, affected by the Spring Festival factors, the national CPI growth expanded, turning from the same month to the same month to an increase of 0.7%, and the year-on-year increase expanded from 0.1% last month to 0.5%. The core CPI, excluding food and energy prices, rebounded for the fourth consecutive month, up 0.5% month-on-month this month and 0.6% year-on-year, both of which expanded from the previous month.

From the perspective of month-on-month, the rise in service and food prices are the main factors affecting the CPI's turn from flat to month-on-month. Service prices rose by 0.9%, an increase of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, affecting the CPI's month-on-month increase by about 0.37 percentage points, accounting for more than 50% of the total CPI's increase. Among the services, the demand for travel and entertainment consumption increased significantly during the Spring Festival, with the prices of air tickets and transportation rental fees, tourism, movies and performance tickets rising by 27.8%, 16.0%, 11.6% and 9.6% respectively, affecting the CPI by about 0.28 percentage points month-on-month; affected by the return of migrant workers and the increase in service demand, the prices of housekeeping services and hair salons rose by 9.3% and 9.2% respectively. Food prices rose by 1.3%, affecting the CPI's month-on-month increase by about 0.24 percentage points, accounting for more than 30% of the total CPI's increase. Among foods, the Spring Festival factors and the impact of the drop in temperatures, the prices of fresh vegetables, fresh fruits and aquatic products rose by 5.9%, 3.3% and 2.7% respectively. In addition, affected by the rise in international gold and crude oil prices, domestic gold jewelry and gasoline prices rose by 3.0% and 2.5% respectively, which affected the total increase of CPI by about 0.10 percentage points month-on-month.

From a year-on-year perspective, the prices of services and food have increased significantly due to the Spring Festival's mismatched month. In addition, the rebound in gasoline prices have collectively affected the year-on-year increase of CPI. Service prices rose 1.1%, an increase of 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, affecting the CPI year-on-year increase by about 0.42 percentage points, higher than the previous month by 0.22 percentage points. Among the services, air tickets and tourism prices rose by 8.9% and 7.0% respectively; movie and performance tickets, housekeeping services and hair salon prices rose by 11.0%, 6.9% and 5.8% respectively. Food prices rose by 0.4%, affecting CPI by about 0.07 percentage points year-on-year, while last month affected CPI by about 0.09 percentage points. Among foods, the prices of pork and fresh vegetables rose by 13.8% and 2.4% respectively, which affected the CPI by about 0.22 percentage points year-on-year; the prices of beef, mutton, edible oil and grain fell by 13.1%, 5.6%, 2.5% and 1.4% respectively, which affected the CPI by about 0.15 percentage points year-on-year. The prices of industrial consumer goods fell by 0.2%, among which the decline in gasoline prices narrowed from 4.0% last month to 0.6%, and the impact on CPI pull-down was 0.12 percentage points lower than last month; in addition, the prices of fuel vehicles and new energy vehicles fell by 4.6% and 5.8% respectively, and the prices of gold jewelry rose by 30.0%.

It is estimated that in the year-on-year changes of CPI in January, the impact of tail-up was about -0.2 percentage points, and the new impact of price changes this year was about 0.7 percentage points.

2. PPI fell year-on-year

In January, affected by factors such as the Spring Festival and holidays, industrial production was in the off-season, and the national PPI fell 0.2% month-on-month and 2.3% year-on-year.

From the month-on-month, PPI fell by 0.2%, an increase of 0.1 percentage point from the previous month. Among them, the price of means of production changed from flat last month to a decrease of 0.2%; the price of means of life changed from flat last month to a decrease of 0.1%. During the Spring Festival, coal supply was guaranteed strongly, coal storage in power plants was relatively sufficient, and the prices of coal mining and washing industries fell by 2.2%. Affected by factors such as holidays and low temperatures, some real estate and infrastructure projects have been suspended, and demand for building materials has declined. The prices of ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industries have fallen by 0.9%, and the prices of non-metallic mineral products have fallen by 0.6%. Affected by the fluctuations in international non-ferrous metal prices, the prices of domestic non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industries fell by 0.4%. The rise in international crude oil prices has driven the rise in prices in domestic oil-related industries, among which the prices of oil and natural gas mining industry rose by 4.5%, and the prices of oil, coal and other fuel processing industries rose by 1.0%. In the equipment manufacturing industry, the price of computer whole-machine manufacturing fell by 0.7%, the price of lithium-ion battery manufacturing fell by 0.6%; the price of aircraft manufacturing rose by 1.1%, the price of gasoline and diesel vehicle manufacturing rose by 0.8%, and the price of photovoltaic equipment and components manufacturing rose by 0.5%. In the consumer goods manufacturing industry, the prices of agricultural and sideline food processing industries fell by 0.5%, and the prices of textile industries fell by 0.4%; the prices of cultural, educational, and sports and entertainment products manufacturing industries rose by 0.3%, and the prices of paper and paper products rose by 0.2%.

From a year-on-year perspective, PPI fell by 2.3%, the same as last month. Among them, the price of means of production fell by 2.6%, the same as last month; the price of means of living fell by 1.2%, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points from last month. By industry, the prices of non-ferrous metal mining and dressing industry rose by 18.9%, the prices of non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry rose by 9.3%, and the prices of cultural, educational, and sports and entertainment products manufacturing industry rose by 6.7%. Among the industries with lower prices, the ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry fell by 10.7%, the coal mining and washing industry fell by 10.1%, the petroleum, coal and other fuel processing industry fell by 6.2%, the chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing industry fell by 4.0%, the automobile manufacturing industry fell by 3.1%, the non-metallic mineral products industry fell by 3.0%, the computer communications and other electronic equipment manufacturing industry fell by 1.8%, the textile industry fell by 1.7%, the electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing industry fell by 1.6%, and the oil and gas mining industry fell by 1.3%. The above 10 industries affected the PPI year-on-year decrease by about 2.11 percentage points, exceeding the 90% of the total decline.

It is estimated that in the year-on-year decline of PPI of 2.3% in January, the impact of tail-up was about -2.1 percentage points, and the new impact of price changes this year was about -0.2 percentage points.