The national economic operation data for the first half of 2026 was recently released. The total GDP reached 69.6 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.7%. The increase was 3.6 trillion yuan, a new high for the same period in the past five years. Core indicators such as employment, prices, and foreign trade were operating within reasonable ranges, and the economy was showing a "stable, resilient, new, and excellent" trend.However, some foreign media have focused on the small fluctuations in quarterly growth and changes in financial data, and hastily thrown out the one-sided conclusion that "policy effects are diminishing." They believe that the effects of China's multiple rounds of stimulus policies are gradually weakening, the effectiveness of credit transmission to the real economy continues to weaken, and the space for policy application continues to narrow, etc.This kind of interpretation ignores China's economic fundamentals and the complete logic of macro-control, and cannot withstand the double test of facts and academic theories.
From the perspective of economic data, in an environment of sluggish global recovery, ongoing geopolitical conflicts, and pressure on external demand, the Chinese economy has sailed against the current, faced difficulties, and stabilized its base. This in itself is strong proof that macro policies are effective.The growth rate in the first half of the year was in line with the expected target for the whole year, with CPI recovering moderately and PPI turning from falling to rising; most related industries such as high-tech manufacturing and digital product manufacturing maintained double-digit growth, and the output of key emerging products grew at double-digits.Under multiple pressures, China's economy has not stalled and remains at the top of the growth echelon of the world's major economies.If the policy really has "diminishing effect" as the foreign media said, how can it achieve the simultaneous advancement of multiple goals of total expansion, structural optimization, and people's livelihood protection?
From the perspective of economic theory, there is never a simple linear correspondence between economic growth and policy stimulus effects.There is a common transmission lag in macroeconomic control. From the introduction of policies to the transformation into corporate investment, market output, and household consumption, it often takes several months or even cross-cycle digestion and release.At the same time, my country's macro-control adheres to the organic unity of inter-cyclical adjustment and counter-cyclical adjustment, and coordinates stabilizing growth, adjusting structure, and preventing risks.Western media use the single criterion of short-term stimulus to judge China's refined and long-term regulation methods. They neither understand the multiple goals of my country's macroeconomic governance nor fully grasp the inherent laws of modern macroeconomic operation, so their conclusions are naturally biased.
Objectively speaking, it is a universal economic law that the marginal pull effect of a single policy tool will slow down after it is continuously implemented.However, the pace of slowdown in marginal pull of different policy tools is different, with their own transmission cycles and effective peaks.Through policy combinations and peak-staggered efforts, the overall pulling effect can be maintained stable at the macro level.This is the core logic of my country's macroeconomic regulation and control: instead of relying on a single tool to continuously "increase the dose", policy combinations are used instead of single measures to achieve a smooth continuation of the overall regulatory effect.
The policy layout in the field of promoting consumption is very representative.This year, the central government will continue to arrange ultra-long-term special government bond funds to support the trade-in of consumer goods, and set up a 100 billion yuan special fund for fiscal and financial cooperation to promote domestic demand. The two major policies cover mainstream consumption scenarios such as automobiles, home appliances, smart digital, and life services.At the same time, funds from ultra-long-term special treasury bonds support the construction of cold chain logistics infrastructure, and pilot cities for the modern trade circulation system have received fixed central subsidies; 41 new port entry duty-free shops have been approved to expand cross-border consumption scenarios; 50 cities have launched pilot programs for award-winning invoices, continuing to activate the public's willingness to consume... Various policies have been coordinated, and the total retail sales of social consumer goods and services in the first half of the year increased year-on-year.2.7%. Service consumption continues to grow faster than commodity consumption, and county markets and new online consumption remain active.The superposition of multiple policies creates aggregation effects and multiplier effects, effectively hedging the pressure caused by the slowdown in the marginal pull of a single policy. This is a concentrated expression of my country's institutional advantages and the confidence that macroeconomic control always maintains sufficient means.
Policies in investment, foreign trade and other fields have also been implemented and achieved results.At the beginning of the year, policies to support the construction of new infrastructure and industrial transformation and upgrading continued to intensify. In the first half of the year, investment in the purchase of equipment and tools increased by 8.1% year-on-year, and investment in new energy, artificial intelligence, integrated circuits and other fields increased significantly.A series of measures to stabilize foreign trade continue to optimize customs clearance, settlement, and cross-border logistics support, help foreign trade entities explore emerging markets, and support the import and export scale of goods trade to exceed 25 trillion yuan and reach a new level.
To evaluate the effectiveness of macro policies, we need to base ourselves on a cross-cyclical long-term perspective.A large number of policies focus on cultivating new productive forces and improving income distribution, which are "latent efforts" to consolidate long-term potential, and are difficult to be immediately reflected in quarterly growth in the short term.For example, large-scale equipment updates, computing power networks, new power systems and other new infrastructure continue to be invested to build a long-term foundation for industrial digitalization and greening; tax incentives for technological innovation and support policies for specialized new enterprises have been continuously improved, continuing to nurture new growth momentum; urban and rural integration supporting reforms have continued to advance, and the potential of the ultra-large domestic market has been continuously released.A series of long-term plans do not seek to achieve higher short-term data, but focus on accumulating sustainable growth resilience.Western media are limited to short-term growth indicators when making judgments, and naturally cannot understand the underlying value of policies.
Various arguments that pessimize China’s economy have been repeatedly refurbished, and “diminishing policy effects” is just a new packaging of the old narrative, which is difficult to disrupt my country’s pace of promoting high-quality development based on national conditions.The current macro policy toolbox is well-stocked and the regulatory tools are abundant. As various measures to stabilize growth continue to be implemented, domestic demand potential, industrial vitality, and innovation momentum will be further released.After many winds and rains, the will becomes stronger, and the road to Guanshan for the first time is still long.By adhering to the general tone of seeking progress while maintaining stability and continuing to improve the macroeconomic governance system, the Chinese economy will surely be able to ride the waves and move forward.


