CCTV News: Dong Lijuan, chief statistician of the Urban Department of the National Bureau of Statistics, interprets the CPI and PPI data for March 2025. The details are as follows:

In March, the consumer price index (CPI) fell by 0.4% month-on-month and 0.1% year-on-year, and the decline narrowed significantly; the industrial producer price index (PPI) fell by 0.4% month-on-month and 2.5% year-on-year. This is mainly affected by seasonal and international imported factors. From the perspective of marginal changes, policy effects such as boosting consumer demand have been further revealed, with the core CPI rebounding significantly, up 0.5% year-on-year, the supply and demand structure has improved, and prices have shown some positive changes.

1. The month-on-month decline in CPI is smaller than the seasonal one, and the year-on-year decline narrows, and the core CPI has rebounded significantly.

The month-on-month decline in CPI is mainly affected by seasonal factors and the downward trend in oil prices. First, the weather has become warmer, and some fresh foods are on the market in large quantities, and the food supply is generally sufficient. In March, food prices fell by 1.4% month-on-month, affecting the CPI decline by about 0.24 percentage points month-on-month, accounting for 60% of the total CPI decline. Among them, the prices of fresh vegetables, pork, eggs and fresh fruits fell by 5.1%, 4.4%, 3.1% and 1.6%, respectively, which affected the CPI by about 0.22 percentage points month-on-month. Second, the number of people traveling in the off-season of tourism has decreased, and travel prices have declined. Among them, air tickets and tourism prices fell by 11.5% and 5.9% respectively, which affected the CPI month-on-month decrease by about 0.13 percentage points. Third, the impact of downward international oil prices. Domestic gasoline prices fell by 3.5% month-on-month, affecting the CPI decline by about 0.12 percentage points month-on-month.

The policy effects such as boosting consumer demand have gradually emerged, and the impact of the Spring Festival has subsided, and more obvious positive changes have been shown. First, the month-on-month decline in CPI is less than the average level in the same period in the past decade, and the price increase of industrial consumer goods has expanded. CPI fell by 0.4% month-on-month, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points less than the average level in the same period in the past decade. Policy effects such as "old for new" have gradually emerged. The prices of industrial consumer goods excluding energy rose by 0.5% month-on-month, an increase of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month. Among them, the prices of household appliances, gold jewelry and clothing rose by 2.8%, 2.3% and 0.7% month-on-month, respectively, all higher than the average level in the same period in the past decade. Second, the year-on-year decline in CPI narrowed, narrowing by 0.6 percentage points from the previous month. Among them, food prices fell by 1.4% year-on-year, a decrease of 1.9 percentage points from the previous month, and the impact on CPI's year-on-year drop-down was about 0.35 percentage points lower than last month. Among foods, the prices of beef, fresh vegetables, eggs and aquatic products fell by 10.8%, 6.8%, 1.6% and 0.2%, respectively, with the decline narrowing; the price of fresh fruits changed from a decrease of 1.8% last month to a rise of 0.9%; the price of pork rose by 6.7%, with the increase expanding. Third, the core CPI, excluding food and energy prices, rebounded significantly, and turned from a decrease of 0.1% last month to an increase of 0.5%. Among them, service prices turned from a year-on-year decrease of 0.4% to a 0.3% increase year-on-year, and the impact on CPI changed from a drop of 0.15 percentage points last month to a pullback of 0.13 percentage points. Among the services, the prices of housekeeping services, hairdressing, and cultural and entertainment services rose by 2.4%, 1.2% and 0.7% respectively, while elderly care services and education services rose by 1.4% and 1.2% respectively. The price of industrial consumer goods excluding energy rose by 0.5% year-on-year, an increase of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, and the impact on CPI increased by 0.08 percentage points from the previous month. Among them, the prices of durable consumer goods and clothing in entertainment rose by 2.0% and 1.5% respectively.

2. PPI continues to decline, and prices in some industries show positive changes.

PPI has mainly declined month-on-month for the following reasons: First, international imported factors affect the decline in prices in domestic oil and some export industries. The decline in international crude oil prices has driven the price of domestic oil-related industries to decline month-on-month, among which the prices of oil and natural gas mining industry fell by 4.4%, the manufacturing price of refined petroleum products fell by 1.7%, and the manufacturing price of organic chemical raw materials fell by 0.2%. Prices in some export industries fell month-on-month, prices in computer communications and other electronic equipment manufacturing fell by 0.7%, and prices in automobile manufacturing fell by 0.4%. Second, energy demand such as coal has declined seasonally. The winter heating in the north has ended one after another, the demand for heating coal has declined, and the inventory of electricity coal is at a high level. In addition, new energy power generation has a certain substitute role. The prices of coal mining and washing industries have decreased by 4.3% month-on-month, and the prices of electricity and heat production and supply industries have decreased by 0.4% month-on-month, which has affected the PPI by about 0.10 percentage points month-on-month. Third, prices in some raw material industries have declined. After the holiday, real estate and infrastructure projects started relatively smoothly, and steel, cement and other production resumed faster than demand. Coupled with the decline in production costs, prices of ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industries and non-metallic mineral products industries both fell by 0.5% month-on-month, which affected the PPI by about 0.05 percentage points month-on-month.

High-tech industries have developed rapidly, policies such as promoting consumption and equipment renewal have shown effectiveness, the supply and demand structure of some industries has improved, and prices have shown positive changes. First, the development of high-tech industries plays a driving role in the prices of related industries. Artificial intelligence, high-performance large models, etc. are widely used, and the year-on-year price increase or decrease in related industries may narrow, and the price of wearable smart device manufacturing has increased by 4.6%; the price drop in electronic circuit manufacturing, industrial automatic control system device manufacturing, and power electronic components manufacturing has narrowed by 0.6, 0.4 and 0.2 percentage points respectively compared with the previous month. The manufacturing technology advantages of aircraft, ships, etc. are obvious. The manufacturing prices of aerospace vehicles and equipment have increased by 2.0% year-on-year, and the manufacturing prices of ships and related devices have increased by 0.7% year-on-year. Second, the demand for some consumer goods manufacturing and equipment manufacturing industries has increased prices. Policies such as promoting consumption and equipment renewal have shown results, and the demand for some consumer goods and equipment manufacturing products has been steadily released. The prices of cultural, educational, artistic, sports and entertainment products manufacturing industries rose by 7.6% year-on-year, the prices of leather, fur, feather, their products and shoes increased by 0.5% year-on-year, and the prices of new energy vehicles manufacturing fell by 1.1% year-on-year, a decrease of 1.6 percentage points from the previous month; the prices of pharmaceutical special equipment manufacturing increased by 6.1% year-on-year, the prices of packaging special equipment manufacturing increased by 1.9% year-on-year, and the prices of textile special equipment manufacturing increased by 0.2% year-on-year. In addition, spring farming preparations have led to a seasonal increase in the prices of agricultural products. Spring plowing preparations are being carried out from south to north, with demand for agricultural products increasing, prices rising month-on-month, fertilizer manufacturing prices rising by 2.5%, seeder prices rising by 0.7%, raw medicines and preparations for herbicides have risen by 0.4%, and on-site operating machinery prices have risen by 0.2%.